国际经济与区域经济教研室学术讲座：中美贸易战对美国消费者的影响

讲座题目：中美贸易战对美国消费者的影响

时间：2024年4月24日周三，上午9:30

地点：岭南堂一楼汪道涵会议室

主持人：杭静（中山大学岭南学院 副教授）

主讲人：田达，南开大学金融学院助理教授。博士毕业于佛罗里达大学Warrington商学院金融系。研究领域：公司金融、ESG、公司创新。

中文摘要：我们研究了美国和中国之间贸易战对美国家庭消费的影响。我们的分析显示，位于对中国商品征收进口关税增加较多的县的家庭的消费支出较那些关税略微增加的县家庭有所减少。同时我们发现消费的数量和价格也较低，表明消费支出的下降更多地受到需求收缩的影响，而不是供给减少的影响。异质性分析显示工薪阶层受到的不利影响更为显著，同时奢侈品相对于必需品消费支出下降更多。较低的消费水平与贸易战导致的工资减少有关，尤其是在进口上游产业成本上升较大的县。我们的研究结果强调了美中贸易关系的不断演化，强调了它们的互补性而不是竞争性。与预期相反，提高进口关税不一定有利于本地企业，反而可能导致供应链中断的风险。

英文题目：The Trade War and Household Consumption

英文摘要：We study the impact of the trade war between U.S. and China on U.S. households consumption. Our analysis reveals that households in counties subjected to a substantial surge in protective import tariffs on Chinese goods exhibit lower consumption levels compared to those in counties with marginal tariff increases. Quantities and prices are also lower suggesting that the lower level of consumption is more driven by contraction in demand rather than decrease in supply. The working-class demographic emerges as more adversely affected, prompting consumption adjustments in luxury goods instead of necessities. The lower consumption level is linked to diminished wages resulting from the trade war, particularly pronounced in counties where import costs of upstream industries faced larger rises. Our findings underscore the evolving nature of U.S.-China trade relations, emphasizing their complementary nature over competitiveness. Contrary to expectations, increased import tariffs do not necessarily benefit local firms, instead posing a risk of supply chain disruptions.