宏观经济学小组讨论活动

论文题目：Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows

主 讲 人：李佳阳（中山大学岭南学院 博士生）

主 持 人：彭玉磊（中山大学岭南学院 助理教授）

时      间：2018年11月20日（周二晚上）7：00 PM

地      点：岭南堂汪道涵会议室

摘要：

This paper explores the nature of macroeconomic spillovers from advanced economies to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the consequences for independent use of monetary policy in EMEs. We first empirically document that a US contractionary monetary policy shock leads a retrenchment in EME capital flows, a fall in EME GDP, and an exchange rate depreciation. We construct a theoretical model that can help to account for these findings. In the model, macro- economic spillovers may be exacerbated by financial frictions. Absent financial frictions, international spillovers are minor, and an inflation targeting rule represents an effective policy for the EME. With frictions in financial intermediation, however, spillovers are sub- stantially magnified, and an inflation targeting rule has little advantage over an exchange rate peg. However, an optimal monetary policy markedly improves on the performance of naive inflation targeting or an exchange rate peg. Furthermore, optimal policies don’t need to be coordinated across countries. A non-cooperative, self-oriented optimal policy gives results very similar to those of a global cooperative optimal policy.

        宏观经济学讨论小组的成立旨在提供一个大家相互交流和分享的宏观经济学研究的平台。通过组织阅读和讨论国际前沿的宏观经济学文献，为做宏观经济学研究打下基础。

        每次讨论，主要包含三个部分，首先由主讲人对一篇文献进行详细的说明，然后再由点评人对基于该文献最新的发展以及可能存在的问题，进行介绍，最后再结合中国经济，讨论相应的研究问题。

        欢迎本科生、硕士生及博士生参加！