岭南学术论坛系列讲座（第686期）

主要内容:
      In a divided world, political identity can heighten the prevalence of heuristics in decision making. This study explores how political identity influences the conjunction fallacy in risk attitudes, whereby people prefer betting on a combination of two events rather than one of the two events, thus violating the basic law of monotonicity. In the context of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, we examine individual risk attitudes towards upcoming election outcomes and economic conditions a year later, both separately and in combination. Using a representative sample from the U.S., we find that people are more likely to exhibit conjunction fallacy in risk attitudes in congruent scenarios for the Democrats, whereby a Harris victory aligns with good economic conditions and a Trump victory coincides with bad conditions. Additionally, we measure individual beliefs about these events and demonstrate that the conjunction fallacy in beliefs partially contributes to the fallacy in risk attitudes. This study highlights the significant role of political identity in shaping preferences and beliefs.

报告人简介：

      苗彬，中国人民大学经济学院教授。苗彬博士结合实验经济学以及行为经济学方法研究决策理论，研究方向主要为跨期风险决策，模糊决策，以及社会分配决策等领域，多篇论文发表于国际顶尖及一流经济学期刊。

      欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！

      中山大学岭南学术论坛系列讲座是中山大学岭南学院自2012年推出的品牌学术活动，迄今已成功举办680多期，得到了学界的高度评价。 岭南学术论坛分经济学和金融学两大系列，是定期邀请国内外优秀学者前来开展学术交流的平台。