岭南学术论坛－经济学系列Seminar－Self-Fulfilling Risk, Land Price and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

第581期岭南学术论坛（经济学系列Seminar）

报告题目：Self-Fulfilling Risk, Land Price and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

报  告 人：徐思闯  (香港中文大学（深圳），助理教授）

主  持 人：刘乐淋（中山大学岭南学院，助理教授）

时      间：2021年5月21日（周五）下午 16：00—18：00

地      点：岭南堂黄炳礼会议室

Abstract:  

The collapse of real estate price during the 2008 financial crisis is accompanied by a sharp surge in measured uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a tractable macroeconomic framework, linking uncertainty, housing price and the real economy. In the model, fluctuations in real estate price originating from changing perceptions about uncertainty transmit and propagate to the macroeconomy, generating boom-bust cycles. Our framework features self-fulfilling risk spike in the housing market, and is able to generate large volatility in price-rent rate as well as strong co-movement between housing price and macroeconomic aggregates. Quantitative exercise suggests risk panic is a leading driver of business-cycle fluctuations despite the presence of various competing structural shocks.

报告人简介：

       徐思闯博士现为香港中文大学（深圳）经济与管理学院助理教授，其本科毕业于中山大学岭南学院，并于香港科技大学商学院取得经济学博士学位，研究领域包括宏观经济学、金融经济学与国际经济学。徐思闯博士研究成果丰硕，论文已发表在国际一流学术期刊Journal of International Economics。

       欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！

       中山大学岭南学术论坛分经济、金融和管理三个系列，是定期邀请国内外优秀学者前来开展学术交流的平台。每系列每个月定期举办2-3次。目前已经成功举办多期，并得到了各界的高度评价。