岭南学术论坛－经济学系列Seminar－Flight to Housing in China

第541期岭南学术论坛（经济学系列Seminar）

报告题目：Flight to Housing in China

报  告  人：许志伟 （上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院 副教授）

主  持  人：彭玉磊（中山大学岭南学院 助理教授）

时       间：2019年6月21日（周五）下午 14:30-16:00

地       点：岭南堂汪道涵会议室

语       言：中文+英文

Abstract:

Using household-level survey and housing transaction data, we detect the flight to safety vis-a-vis housing in China: Great economic uncertainty causes the prices of housing assets to soar, especially those of good quality. To stabilize housing prices, China has imposed purchase restrictions on the housing market. In this paper, we study the aggregate and distributional effects of this housing policy by developing a two-sector macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households. An uncertainty shock generates a countercyclical housing boom by shifting outward households' demand for housing as a store of value. A vibrant housing sector then leads to an economic recession by crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector. Our quantitative analysis suggests that the policy limiting housing purchases effectively curbs surging housing prices. However, the policy restricts households' access to housing that can be used to buffer idiosyncratic uncertainties, creating a larger consumption dispersion. Consequently, the housing policy creates a trade-off between macro-level stability and micro-level consumption risk sharing.

报告人简介：

        许志伟教授现为上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院副教授。他于2013年在香港科技大学获得经济学博士，主要的研究领域为宏观金融、经济周期与中国经济。这些年以来，先后在Economic Journal, Review of Economic Dynamics , Journal of Economic and Dynamics Control, Quantitative Economics ，《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等国内外期刊上发表多篇论文。

        欢迎感兴趣的年轻老师和博士生参加！

        中山大学岭南学术论坛分经济、金融和管理三个系列，是定期邀请国内外优秀学者前来开展学术交流的平台。每系列每个月定期举办2-3次。目前已经成功举办多期，并得到了各界的高度评价。