主讲人简介：

主讲人1： 郭倩雯 博士后

主题：How time-inconsistent preference affects investment timing for rail transit 

摘要：

This paper addresses optimal major transit investment issues while considering time-inconsistent preference and population uncertainty. While the typical real option approach assumes that investors possess a constant discount rate over time, this paper proposes an extension of real option to model investors’ preference with a quasi-hyperbolic discount function. Two alternative assumptions about the strategies guiding the behavior of future investors are considered in this paper, namely naive authority and sophisticated authority. An optimal transit investment timing model is proposed that incorporates explicitly the effects of the investors’ forecast about their own future preferences. Analyses of the sensitivity of investment thresholds to transportation system parameters are conducted. The proposed model is illustrated in a Chinese city. Insightful findings are reported regarding the effect of time-inconsistency on optimal investment timing.

主讲人2： 黎智滔

主题：处置效应、赌场赢钱效应与赌博模型