报告题目：Life Expectancy at Risk: The Enduring Impact of El Niño on Human Mortality

报 告 人：朱文君（新加坡南洋理工大学 终身副教授）

主 持 人：曾燕（中山大学岭南学院 教授）

时    间：2024年7月16日（周二）10:30

地    址：岭南堂汪道涵会议室（101）

语    言：中文+英文

摘要:

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences global weather patterns, leading to extensive socioeconomic repercussions. Recent studies have highlighted the potential of anthropogenic changes to ENSO to disrupt the global economy. While the association between ENSO and human health—manifesting in epidemic outbreaks, floods, and food security—is well-documented, the specific impact of these anthropogenic modifications on human mortality improvements and life expectancy remains under-explored. This paper investigates the effects of El Niño events on human mortality improvements around the globe, emphasizing the identification of patterns, trends, and possible causal mechanisms. Our findings reveal that ENSO consistently affects mortality improvements, leading to a deceleration in life expectancy growth across Asia-Pacific countries. We attribute a loss of 0.2 and 0.4 years in life expectancy due to the 1997-98 and 1982-83 El Niño events, respectively. Under an emissions scenario aligning with current mitigation pledges, we project a 1.8-year reduction in life expectancy among the Asia-Pacific population due to increased ENSO amplitude and teleconnections from warming. However, these effects are influenced by stochastic variations in the sequence of El Niño and La Niña events. Our results underscore the critical impact of climate variability on mortality improvement and life expectancy growth, independent of warming, and highlight the potential for future losses driven by anthropogenic intensification of such variability. This is Joint work with Yanbin Xu, Benjamin P. Horton, & Dhrubajyoti Samanta.

报告人介绍：

Wenjun Zhu (PhD, FSA, CERA), is a tenured Associate Professor at Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She is the Deputy Head of Division of Banking & Finance, and Deputy Director of the Insurance Risk and Finance Research Centre (IRFRC) at NBS. Wenjun received her Ph.D. in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo in 2015. Wenjun is a winner of the Society of Actuaries James C. Hickman Scholar, and the 2023 Actuarial Science Early Career Award.  She is an Associate Editor of Annals of Actuarial Science. She has been publishing in leading academic journals including Management Science, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, North American Actuarial Journal, Journal of Risk and Insurance, ASTIN Bulletin, Journal of Banking & Finance,  etc.

    活动由中山大学保险与金融工程教研室和中山大学金融工程与风险管理研究中心联合举办。   

    欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！

    岭南学院保险与金融工程教研室于2022年1月成立，由教授、副教授等15名成员组成。研究领域包括保险精算、金融工程、风险管理、社会保障、数字金融与保险、行为金融等。教研室成员曾在Operations Research、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、Insurance: Mathematics and Economics、《经济研究》《管理世界》《管理科学学报》等本领域权威期刊发表论文；教研室成员主持过多项国家社科基金重大项目，研究成果获得过多位国家领导人的批示，也获得过教育部高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社会科学）二等奖等奖项。详情请见链接：https://lingnan.sysu.edu.cn/organization/08。

    中山大学金融工程与风险管理研究中心于2003年6月成立，是广东省人文社科重点研究基地，以建设高水平、开放型的金融工程与风险管理研究平台为宗旨，综合运用金融学、经济学、管理学、数学、工程学、行为学等学科的理论、方法和技术，创新性地研究和解决金融发展中遇到的重大理论与实践问题。本中心紧紧围绕科学研究这一主要工作，积极与国内外学者进行学术交流，力争承担重要科研项目、取得高质量科研成果，并为经济金融现实提供决策咨询服务，继而推动相关学科的建设和和发展。研究领域包括：金融工程、风险管理、数字金融、数字保险、数字经济、绿色金融、养老金融、供应链金融、资源配置、资产定价、金融市场、保险精算、决策与对策等。详情请见链接：https://bus.sysu.edu.cn/cferm/index.htm。