第555期岭南学术论坛(经济学系列Seminar)

发布人:李义华 发布日期:2019-12-02
活动时间
-
活动地址
岭南学院汪道涵会议室

报告题目:Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?

报  告 人:James Morley  (Professor, University of Sydney)

时      间:2019年12月6日(周五)上午 14:30-16:00

地      点:岭南学院汪道涵会议室

语      言:英文

 

Abstract:  

Since the Great Recession, U.S. real GDP has not returned to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation is due to hysteresis effects from the recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions, those which permanently alter the level of real GDP and those with only temporary effects. We also account for structural change in trend growth. Estimates from our model suggest that the Great Recession generated a large persistent negative output gap rather than any substantial hysteresis effects, with the economy eventually recovering to a slower-growth trend path due to an apparent reduction in productivity growth that began sometime prior to the onset of the Great Recession.

 

报告人个人简介:

      James Morley教授现任职于悉尼大学,曾为华盛顿大学(圣路易斯)终身副教授及新南威尔士大学正教授,主要研究方向为时间序列分析与实证宏观,其著作颇丰,多篇论文发表在Review of Economics and Statistics,Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of International Economics等国际一流期刊,现为Economic Record期刊共同主编,Journal of Applied Econometrics和Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control副主编,并曾担任Journal of Business and Economic Statistics副主编。另外,James Morley教授在美联储、国际清算银行、新西兰央行等诸多政策机构亦有兼职或者短期访问学术交流。

 

 

 

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