报告题目：Global Sourcing and Domestic Value-added in Gross Exports
报 告 人：祁涵（香港浸会大学 助理教授）
主 持 人：占超群（中山大学岭南学院 助理教授）
时 间： 2015年5月23日（周四）下午14:30-16:00
语 言： 中文+英文
This paper employs data from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to document the evolution of the domestic content in exports, as measured by the domestic value added to gross exports ratio (DVAR), across countries and sectors over the period 1995-2008. We develop a multiple-sector general equilibrium model of Eaton and Kortum (2002) with domestic and global input-output linkages (a la Caliendo and Parro (2015)) to provide structural interpretations of individual countries’ DVAR. We use the calibrated version of the model to fully decompose the time-series changes of the global and selected countries DVAR into separate parts that are due to changes in technology, trade frictions, and other exogenous factors such as factor endowments and trade imbalance. We find that while the partial effects of both technology and trade costs are negative, there is a positive and significant interactive effect from the two. Considering the interactive effects, we find that the total effect of technology, which has been either overlooked or misinterpreted in the existing analyses of the evolution of global value chains, is significantly positive, while the total effect of trade frictions is only marginally negative. The contributions of other determinants are quantitatively very small.