第520期岭南学术论坛(金融学系列Seminar)

发布人:李义华 发布日期:2018-11-30
活动时间
-
活动地址
岭南堂汪道涵会议室

报告题目:Is the Demographic Dividend Diminishing in China?——Evidence from Population Aging and Economic Growth during 1990-2015

人:叶巾祁(华中科技大学经济学院 助理教授)

人:彭浩然(中山大学岭南学院 副教授)

     间: 2018127日(周五)下午16:00-17:30

     点:岭南堂汪道涵会议室

    言: 中文+英文

 

Abstract:

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effect of Chinese population aging on economic growth. The degree of aging is widely assumed to impact economic growth by shaping the labor market and human resources. We exploit the predicted province-by-year variation in population aging as an instrument to estimate the impact of aging on output/capita, productivity, and labor force ratio. Using a panel data set of Chinese provinces during 1990-2015 and an interactive fixed effects model, we find a 10% increase in the fraction of population aged 65+ decreases the GDP/capita growth rate by 2 %. Further decompositions show that half of the reduction comes from the slower productivity growth, while the rest is due to the slower growth of labor force ratio. Additionally, this negative effect on GDP growth is more dramatically after year 2000. Our findings imply that population aging trends will keep slowing down economic growth in next decades.

 

报告人简介:

        叶巾祁,现任华中科技大学经济学院助理教授;2016年毕业于美国雪城大学(Syracuse University)并获得经济学博士学位;研究领域为健康经济学,公共经济学,劳动经济学;已在健康经济学顶级英文期刊 Journal of Health Economics上分别以独立作者和通讯作者身份发表两篇论文;主要研究医疗保险政策如何影响保险覆盖,健康及劳动力市场表现等问题,并对老龄化及医疗保险改革等中国问题感兴趣。

 

 

 

 

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